2 Years.... Where will this be?

[Lumpy]

Hey Cyclist - where do you think this industry will be in two years? I'm thinking out loud here.... they have the codecs "close", HD TV's are everywhere (including in homes) and probably the biggest past issue - bandwidth is now "here".

I think video explodes. Especially desktop applications. What's your take?

Lumpy

[cyclist]

Good question. Thinking while I type, I think the industry is going to go three separate ways. Consumer, small business and corporate. Companies with corporate solutions will offer the other two, while the other two will concentrate on themselves only.

I see consumer use through the television taking off at some point. Although some products are out there, someone needs to build a truly simple plug and play system. No computer use, just a rack mount piece of gear with a tethered camera. If I was Time Warner or some other cable corporation, I would be working on something asap. Add a firewire port to your existing cable box and develop a camera. It has to be cheap and you can't be charged per minute (monthly fee, like cable tv). The only problem is it not working with other cable or satellite systems.

Corporations will still steal each other's ideas (look at the big 3's plasma systems and notice that they all really look alike), and I doubt there will be breakthroughs for large participant units in two years. Look how long the "RPX" has been around with little change.

I think AV integrators have the most to gain with elegant yet simple installs in high level offices (ceo's coo's, etc). But they need push button operation. CEO of location A needs to only push a button to talk to the Manager of location B. That's where it's at.

[Lumpy]

If you look straight down below this post - there's a few Polycom products. Seems like the home end user product is here - sits on top of your TV, no computer needed, camera included, stand alone. Even looks "styled" after a cable box.... Still 3 - 4K.... Gonna' be a whole bunch of AV techs out there hooking these units up I would think (think Geek Squad).

Lumpy

[cyclist]

Those are too big to put on a plasma tv and WAY too expensive to hope to break into the home market.

Now that I'm thinking about it, Microsoft should put something into the next gen Xbox. It's the right price point.

[YeOldeTechy]

Gonna' be a whole bunch of AV techs out there hooking these units up I would think (think Geek Squad).

Lumpy

Or YeOldeTechy! :)

But, they need to be cheaper to be accepted, and what about dialing? IP address dialing for GrandMa or GrandPa is not advisable. The whole process needs to be easier...like, I hate to say this...a telephone.

What about Sony etc embedding VC in their TV's? I now have ethernet to my TV to use VUDU so H.323 there is feasible.....

[Lumpy]

A Telepresence Telephone....

ATT LOL!

Videophones.... they're inexpensive - I don't know how well they work though....

There's enough cable and fiber down to do it now - might just need a big nudge from somebody that stands to gain a lot from their investment, Cisco and Polycom come to mind. They would own it if they did the marketing.

WWCT - Wonder what Cyclist thinks....

Lumpy

[Lumpy]

What about Sony etc embedding VC in their TV's? I now have ethernet to my TV to use VUDU so H.323 there is feasible.....
But then they couldn't sell you a VC unit too!

Lumpy

[YeOldeTechy]

True, but, they could offer so much more like watching movies from the Internet (which they are starting...see my Blog entry here (http://yeoldetechy.blogspot.com/2008/06/sony-will-stream-movies-direct-to-your.html)), surfing the web, making reservations for vacation, email....hmmm, the center of Internet activity will shift from the Study to the Living Room.

Twenty years from now everyone will be in their Lazy chair recliner videoconferencing and watching the Olympics. (http://yeoldetechy.blogspot.com/2008/08/watching-olympics-on-nbccom.html)

[Lumpy]

What about Sony etc embedding VC in their TV's? I now have ethernet to my TV to use VUDU so H.323 there is feasible.....

YeOldeTechy, didn't you do a review of VUDU?

L2

[YeOldeTechy]

I did. The review of VUDU is here (http://yeoldetechy.blogspot.com/2008/03/vudu-evaluation.html). I suspect that streaming technology like VUDU will someday be the way you watch movies at home. The quality is terrific for both SD and HD movies.

:)

[kingcobra]

I think it all depends on the pricing of this service if they manage to get the price down why not this can be a great industry. We ourselves use video conferencing in our company may be our clients in US want to use telepresence if the price of telepresence comes close to video conference